Pakistan Macroeconomic Framework for the 2009-10


Petroleum group to dominate $9.365bn import bill for 2009-10

$19.9 billion exports target set for fiscal year 2009-10

By Sajid Chaudhry
ISLAMABAD: Petroleum group would continue to dominate country’s imports with projected oil import bill at $9.365 billion during next fiscal year 2009-10 as compared with latest estimated bill of $9.858 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09. The oil import bill was targeted to be $13.669 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09, however, with the decline in oil price in international market, it is projected to be $9.858 billion in ongoing fiscal.

Total imports of the country are projected to be $28.7 billion in 2009-10 as compared with estimated imports of $30.187 billion by end 2008-09, projecting a decline of $1.487 billion. According to the projections contained in Macroeconomic Framework for the 2009-10, total imports were targeted to be around $37.196 billion in 2008-09, however, due to the measures taken by the government and slowdown in economy, total imports of the country are projected to be at $30.187 billion.

Machinery group’s imports were projected to be around $7.269 billion in ongoing fiscal year but latest estimates suggest that machinery imports are to end up at $5.180 billion for the ongoing fiscal year. It is projected that machinery imports would decline by $259 million and would be around $4.921 billion in 2009-10.

Food group’s imports were projected to be $3.130 billion in ongoing fiscal year and latest estimates suggest that these imports to end up at $3.033 billion by end June. Food group’s imports are now projected to decline to $2.881 billion in 2009-10 against the estimates of $30.033 billion in ongoing fiscal year showing a decline of $2.848 billion.

Transport group’s imports mainly vehicles were projected to be $2.411 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2008-09, however, additional duties imposed on import of luxury vehicles and reduction in depreciation rate on used cars imported by overseas Pakistanis, such imports are now projected to be $1.936 billion. Transport group’s imports are projected to further decline by $97 million and to be around $1.839 billion in 2009-10.

Textile group’s imports like raw cotton, fiber and yarn were projected to be $868 million, and however, such imports are now projected to be around $1.703 billion with an increase of $$835 million. The imports of this group are projected to be around $1.617 billion in 2009-10.

Agriculture and other chemical imports were targeted to be around $2.659 billion in ongoing fiscal; however, such imports are now projected to be around $2.435 billion by end of this fiscal year. Agriculture and other chemical imports are projected to be around $2.313 billion in 2009-10 with fertilizer imports at $727.3 million. Metal group’s imports were targeted to be $2.224 billion in ongoing fiscal year but latest estimates suggest that such imports to end up at $1.840 billion for this fiscal with iron and steel imports at $1.114 billion. This group is projected to import such metal products at $1.748 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10 with $1.087 billion imports of iron and steel.

Miscellaneous group’s imports were targeted to be $655 million and latest estimates suggest such imports at $549.8 million in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09. Such imports are targeted to be around $522 million in 2009-10. All other imports were targeted to be at $7.616 billion but latest estimates suggest that such imports are to increase to $7.833 billion in 2008-09. These imports are targeted to be around $7.442 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10. sajid chaudhry

ISLAMABAD: Total exports of the country are projected to be $19.9 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10 as against the latest estimates of $19.5 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09, projecting an increase of just $400 million.

The exports were projected to be at $22.9 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09, however, due to the recession around the globe and structural issues in local economy like power, gas shortages and other issues the exports are projected to be around $19.5 billion projecting a shortfall of $3.4 billion in 2008-09.

This shortfall is attributed to the impacts of global financial crisis that hit the US and EU economies, the major trading partners of Pakistan. The shockwaves sent by the crisis are felt by all the developing countries whose economy is exports based. Almost all the sectors—services and industry alike—have felt the pinch of the crisis emanating from the mass failure of the sub-prime mortgages in the US.

Textile group—having major chunk in total exports—would be contributing $10.408 billion in exports in next fiscal year 2009-10 against the target of $12.991 billion. The textile exports are projected to be around $10.204 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09 and none of its product is projected to cross $2 billion export mark in 2009-10.

The disaggregated contributions from the textile sector are: raw cotton $69 million, cotton yarn $1.280 billion, cotton cloth $1.979 billion, yarn and other cotton yarn $46.1 million, knitwear $1.842 billion, bedwear $1.873 billion, towels $603 million, readymade garments $1.429 billion, art silk and synthetic textile $403 million, textile made ups $528 million and other textile materials $351 million.

Food group’s exports are projected to be around $3.056 billion in 2009-10 with rice to be the major contributor in exports with $2.075 billion share. Food group was targeted to contribute in exports by $3.015 billion in 2008-09, however, due to different issues; its contributions in exports are projected to be $2.996 billion.

Petroleum group’s contributions in exports are estimated at $1.266 billion in 2009-10 with petroleum products at $504.1 million and petroleum top naptha $762 billion.

Other manufacturing group to contribute in exports $3.778 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10 with contributions carpets $213.2 million, sports goods $303 million, leather tanned $408 million and other leather manufactures at $689.3 million, footwear 103 million, surgical instruments $257 million, plastic materials $609.5 million, engineering goods $254.1 million, jewellery $210 million and cement $545 million.

Petroleum group would continue to dominate country’s imports with projected oil import bill at $9.365 billion during next fiscal year 2009-10 as compared with latest estimated bill of $9.858 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09. The oil import bill was targeted to be $13.669 billion in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09, however, with the decline in oil price in international market, it is projected to be $9.858 billion in ongoing fiscal.

Total imports of the country are projected to be $28.7 billion in 2009-10 as compared with estimated imports of $30.187 billion by end 2008-09, projecting a decline of $1.487 billion. According to the projections contained in Macroeconomic Framework for the 2009-10, total imports were targeted to be around $37.196 billion in 2008-09, however, due to the measures taken by the government and slowdown in economy, total imports of the country are projected to be at $30.187 billion.

Machinery group’s imports were projected to be around $7.269 billion in ongoing fiscal year but latest estimates suggest that machinery imports are to end up at $5.180 billion for the ongoing fiscal year. It is projected that machinery imports would decline by $259 million and would be around $4.921 billion in 2009-10.

Food group’s imports were projected to be $3.130 billion in ongoing fiscal year and latest estimates suggest that these imports to end up at $3.033 billion by end June. Food group’s imports are now projected to decline to $2.881 billion in 2009-10 against the estimates of $30.033 billion in ongoing fiscal year showing a decline of $2.848 billion.

Transport group’s imports mainly vehicles were projected to be $2.411 billion in the ongoing fiscal year 2008-09, however, additional duties imposed on import of luxury vehicles and reduction in depreciation rate on used cars imported by overseas Pakistanis, such imports are now projected to be $1.936 billion. Transport group’s imports are projected to further decline by $97 million and to be around $1.839 billion in 2009-10.

Textile group’s imports like raw cotton, fiber and yarn were projected to be $868 million, and however, such imports are now projected to be around $1.703 billion with an increase of $$835 million. The imports of this group are projected to be around $1.617 billion in 2009-10.

Agriculture and other chemical imports were targeted to be around $2.659 billion in ongoing fiscal; however, such imports are now projected to be around $2.435 billion by end of this fiscal year. Agriculture and other chemical imports are projected to be around $2.313 billion in 2009-10 with fertilizer imports at $727.3 million. Metal group’s imports were targeted to be $2.224 billion in ongoing fiscal year but latest estimates suggest that such imports to end up at $1.840 billion for this fiscal with iron and steel imports at $1.114 billion. This group is projected to import such metal products at $1.748 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10 with $1.087 billion imports of iron and steel.

Miscellaneous group’s imports were targeted to be $655 million and latest estimates suggest such imports at $549.8 million in ongoing fiscal year 2008-09. Such imports are targeted to be around $522 million in 2009-10. All other imports were targeted to be at $7.616 billion but latest estimates suggest that such imports are to increase to $7.833 billion in 2008-09. These imports are targeted to be around $7.442 billion in next fiscal year 2009-10.

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