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After the election – By M.A. Niazi
The result of the elections demonstrates that we do not deserve the blessings which have been showered upon us by the outgoing governments, caretaker and otherwise, and have been headed or at least guided by Pervez Musharraf. That he has mass support in the country is shown by the King’s Parties having won so many seats – 91 (PML(Q) 38, MQM 19, MMA 3, ANP 10, PML(F) 4, Independents 27). In fact, when the ‘others’ are counted, it will be 95. And this will win another nine women’s and minorities’ seats for a total of 100.
From the side of the anti-Musharraf forces, there will be needed another 72 members, so about 36 PML(N) MNAs will have to become Patriots, and the same number of PPP men or women, out of 87 and 66 respectively. Such a combination would allow the President to choose a PM of his choice, probably from the PML(Q). This is necessary if Pakistan is to achieve just two goals: continued cooperation in the War On Terror, and the continuation of the eminently successful economic policies of the Musharraf years.
The PPP is for the time being committed to not forming a coalition with the PML-Q, but if they were to overcome this prejudice, the PPP would find that not only was the PML-Q a good coalition partner in the National Assembly, but was able to deliver 66 Punjab MPAs, just shy of an absolute majority, not enough to give the PPP the majority, but enough to enable the PPP to form the government there, or at least enough for it to count in government-formation there. Without the entrée provided by the PML(Q), the PPP will be excluded from the process of government-formation in both the centre as in the province.
The USA has already expressed its satisfaction that the polls were fair, and the USA was concerned enough to have Senator Joseph Biden, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, head the US Observers’ group, not only certify the polls as fair, but also promise more dollars, which had been held back for the polls.
The PML(N) may not stake a claim to the Prime Ministership, though they have a certain baseline of MNAs, and they are actively trawling for Q MNAs. However, the MNAs belonging to the PML-Q belong to the COAS, and will not betray him, though one can never tell in this climate. That is why they will admit the Independents who will dilute them in their demand for ministries.
This is an unstable part of the equation, which will not allow the PML-Q to be counted upon by any side. This is likely to increase with the passage of time, as the PML-Q members of both national and provincial (mostly Punjab) assemblies decide that their future lies elsewhere, in some party with a future. The PML(Q) existed secondarily as a vehicle to get Ch Pervez Elahi elected PM.
Whereas before there was only one person in the shape of President Pervez Musharraf to deal with, whether it was the Americans in the War On Terror, or politically or otherwise. Now not only will there be the President, but there will be the COAS and PM, who are different persons, though either Pervez Musharraf or his appointees hold these assignments. It must be taken as a firm assumption that the elections must throw up a chief executive (in the Pakistani case, PM) who can conduct the War On Terror in the American interest. That is perhaps the sole reason that the PPP is in talks with the PML-Q.
The PML-N is not yet in these talks because it has not yet been invited, but though the PML-N has 66 MNAs, enough to give the PPP a majority, but not enough for the PML-N to claim the post of PM for itself. Perhaps it is lucky then that Mian Nawaz and Mian Shahbaz are not part of the Assembly, and thus not contesting for the post of PM.
The nearest that the PML-N has to a prime ministerial candidate is Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, while the PPP has got more people with both previous experience and the ambition. They are just two from the Punjab, Ch Ahmad Mukhtar and Punjab PPP President Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi. If one is made PM, then there will be a very strong move to make the other Punjab CM, assuming obviously that the PPP is to get that position. But the PPP has been sensible enough to leave it to the PML-N to set conditions for entry into government.
The PML-N has set the resignation of the President, the reinstatement of the deposed judges and the restoration of the Constitution to its pre-1999 shape as its conditions to join any government.
The President himself has put resignation out of question, leaving the PML-N little choice but to shut up on its other demands. Both the President and the PML-N are warriors in the USA’s War On Terror, the only difference being that the PML-N claims that it will be more efficient, a claim that is not necessarily believed by the War’s primary fighters. That was why ANP chief Asfandyar Wali did not rely on his party’s 31 seats, to increase to nearly 40 because of women and minorities, even though that should have been enough with 18 independents to form the NWFP government. He stated his first priority the War On Terror, and only then the matter of the name of the province.
Hamid Karzai has received more support than he deserves at the hands of true Pakistanis, which the ANP have proven to be. The ANP will bring to the government a strong commitment to the War On Terror, plus a crop of reasonably experienced hands who will make good ministers, or at least will make good speeches. The ANP is not a candidate for more than ministerial office at the Centre, and will form part of whatever government is formed.
The President is actually ideally placed for a repetition of 1988, only earlier. He should dissolve the National Assembly as soon as he feels that the electorate is now likely to give him the Parliament he wants, which is one with the power of validating his actions under the PCO and Emergency, and which will let him pick as PM a rank outsider, who will disappear as graciously as Shaukat Aziz.
The President has the dissolution power, so he will find enough opportunity. The first reason he will have is that of the War on Terror. Joining the self-serving American and European choruses of “not enough” will be the President of Pakistan, who will use this as a ground of dissolution.
E-mail: maniazi@nation.com.pk
Courtesy: The News, 22/2/2008
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