The urgency with which big and small political parties are joining the ruling coalitions at the centre and the provinces means that the country is unlikely to have a real opposition in the assemblies in the near future. There seems to be a rush to become part of the government at the federal level and in Punjab, Sindh, the NWFP and Balochistan, as the newly-elected assembly members don’t want to be left out in the pursuit of power.
Pakistan’s new rulers will have a free hand and little fear of accountability in the absence of a proper opposition. It will not augur well for the country’s struggling democracy if there are no checks on the ruling parties.
It isn’t a bad idea to have a national government comprising important political parties. National reconciliation is needed to tackle the problem of terrorism and also check foreign interference in our affairs, particularly American.
However, there has been no indication that our political parties have overcome rivalries and their leaders have put aside personal ambition to become part of a national government. The concept is alien to them. But this hasn’t deterred PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari from trying to woo almost every political party to join him in cobbling together some sort of a national government at the centre and in the provinces. His readiness to refer to all top politicians, ranging from Nawaz Sharif to Asfandyar Wali Khan and Maulana Fazlur Rahman to Altaf Hussain, as his “brothers” may seem amusing, but there is no better way in our culture to befriend someone by addressing him as an elder brother. Mr Zardari, for long reviled and misunderstood, is doing just that and winning praise as a mature statesmanlike politicians healing wounds after more than eight years of General Pervez Musharraf’s absolute rule that divided and demoralised the nation.
However, the track record of our politicians doesn’t inspire hope that their newfound brotherhood will last. Political alliances have been formed in Pakistan against a common foe, but none survived once the goal was achieved and it was time to make a grab for power. In case President Musharraf steps down or is shown the door, the coalition partners now in power will have to create a new common enemy to stick together.
Until now, four political parties have become part of the ruling coalition at the centre and a few more could join it, in keeping with the trend. The PPP-led federal government already has the PML-N, the ANP and the JUI-F in its fold. The first three were the original partners and their coming together wasn’t much of a surprise as they were allies in the ARD and in the previous parliament. But then Maulana Fazlur Rahman’s JUI-F — which was able to claim the MMA title and election symbol, book, despite the fact that a major component, the Jamaat-e-Islami, boycotted the elections — joined the coalition and the situation in a way turned topsy-turvy. Here was an Islamic party with a divergent stand on most issues becoming part of a coalition of secular, centrist and nationalist parties. Also, the JUI-F had not fared well at the polls and lost most of the assembly seats that the MMA had won in the 2002 elections. Therefore, it didn’t have the mandate to rule again.
But political compulsions rather than any love for the Maulana and his JUI-F prompted Mr Zardari and his PML-N and ANP allies to accommodate him and his Islamic party in the ruling coalition. The JUI-F still had several senators and its support was needed to gain a majority vis-à-vis the vanquished PML-Q and its allies in the Senate. The support of the JUI-F was also crucial to form a stable, PPP-led coalition government in Balochistan and deny the PML-Q the opportunity to head any ruling alliance in the province. The JUI-F, with its six MNAs, is now part of the federal government but, strangely enough, is in opposition to the ANP-PPP coalition government in the NWFP with its 14 MPAs. Being both in the government and opposition has been a hallmark of JUI-F and MMA politics. The MMA was in the opposition to the pro-Musharraf PML-Q in the centre after the 2002 polls but was junior partner to the PML-Q-led coalition government in Balochistan. And it was ruling the NWFP all by itself.
Now that Mr Zardari has made Altaf Hussain his “elder brother” and visited the MQM headquarters, Nine Zero, in Karachi, one will not be surprised if the party were invited to join the federal government and given a share in the PPP-led government in Sindh. Since the two parties have forgiven each other, there is nothing to stop the PPP and MQM from sharing power, and repeating their failed experiment at coalition-building in the past. The coalition government at the centre will have five parties once the MQM joins it and it would be an unwieldy alliance considering the unfriendly ties between the MQM and the PML-N on the one hand and the ANP and the JUI-F on the other. How long this alliance of strange bedfellows would last is anybody’s guess. It is obvious that the leaders of the coalition parties would be on their toes forever to do damage control, as differences could crop up anytime and egos hurt all the time.
In the NWFP, which took the lead among the provinces in formation of the government, the ANP and PPP have already set up a 21-member cabinet and its strength is poised to rise with the expected joining of PML-N, which was piqued when offered only two ministerial jobs with insignificant portfolios such as fisheries and wildlife. Though the PML-N has refused to join the cabinet, the ANP and PPP would likely sweeten the offer by presenting better portfolios or even three ministerial berths to the PML-N to tempt it to become part of the coalition. A second phase of cabinet extension is also on the cards to accommodate disgruntled ANP and PPP MPAs. It also seems the opposition ranks would continue to shrink as the cabinet grows in size.
In Balochistan, there is a strong possibility that there will be almost no opposition this time. All parties with representation, including the fractious PML-N, want to join the PPP-led coalition government and we are going to perhaps see the biggest cabinet in Balochistan’s history. Coalition governments in Balochistan always make strange bedfellows and create huge cabinets, but this time there could be one that is bigger and more unwieldy.
The PPP and the ANP have already decided to form the coalition government in Sindh. The ANP, which for the first time won two provincial assembly seats in Sindh, is unhappy at the prospect of the MQM joining the provincial government. But the two ethnic-based parties are likely to stick together in the government. Staying out of the government isn’t going to be their choice, at a time when power is the name of the game.
In Punjab, the PML-N and the PPP have already decided to form the coalition government on the lines of the one they have constituted at the centre. The couple of MMA MPAs in Punjab too could join the government and so could the “dissidents” in the PML-Q who have formed a “forward bloc” to facilitate their entry into the corridors of power.
At this point of time, it seems that almost all political parties are joining the coalitions taking shape at the centre and in the provinces. There wasn’t much of an opposition even otherwise and the one that existed for a while is facing defections and shrinking in size. As one PML-Q MNA, Humayun Saifullah, noted, his party and its allies, such as the MQM, had 85 MNAs after the Feb 18 elections but they were left with 62 following the election for the National Assembly speaker and around 42 only when the polls for prime minister were held. “One more election and we would have less than 30 MNAs,” he remarked.
The writer is executive editor of The News International based in Peshawar. Email: bbc@pes.comsats.net.pk
Courtesy: The News, 5/4/2008
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