Rizwan Ghani
Email:sadcat44@hotmail.com
After watching Negroponte’s press conference coupled with Bush and Musharraf’s foreign policy statements supporting continuation of war against terrorism it is time to trash Bush war against terrorism because the policies are aimed at colonizing the region so as to protect geo-strategic energy, political and economic interests of corporate America and in the process deprive the region to use its natural resources and economic growth potential to remain dependent on foreign aid. The adoption of independent foreign policy will allow Pakistan realize its economic, political and geo-political objectives including energy interests and reduction of price of a barrel of oil to 45 dollars.
The war against terrorism is a self-created phenomenon led by the US to protect west’s economic, energy and geo-political interests. It is only matter of time that its details will be public just like night of June 2, 1919 when bombs exploded in nine US countries (How Hoover’s Red scare echoes in War on Terrorism, K.D. Ackerman LA Times published in Arab News dated June 23, 07). This article aims to help bring international dimension to the country’s foreign policy challenges that I find is missing from the analysis in local press. Negroponte’s press conference reinforced negative perception about Musharraf and Bush’s flawed policies already being criticized in America. In term of talking to militants, US Ambassador to Philippines reportedly visited MILF camp in Feb. 08. Washington’s reservations over judiciary have global connotations including unlawful detention of missing persons.
ANP has clearly spelled its policy on combating security and law and order situation in NWFP. It should end ‘Islamabad federalism’ because it is the democratic and constitutional right of elected NWFP govt. to adopt a policy that is practical, respects local culture and traditions of the province. It is hoped that Washington will respect democratic rights of NWFP govt. and abstain from meddle in the internal affairs of a sovereign state.
Internationally speaking, oil is the basis of Iraq attack and energy, economy and geo-strategic US interests are at play in the region. After 1973 Arab oil embargo west by introducing oil prices control mechanism through Nymex achieved handful of strategic economic advantages: 1) trade of oil in dollars which in turn allowed American economy access to more than two thirds of global national foreign exchange reserves that are in dollars. Math’s shows that in 2007 daily sale of 32 million barrels of oil from OPEC members at the rate of 100 dollars brought 3.2 billion dollars daily to US financial system. 2) This amount allowed US planners to come up with idea of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that acted as backbone of US economy generating some 5000 jobs daily. This catapulted US economy figures to 17% of global economy with EU at 14 %. 3) The US planners used Nymex to increase its defense budget by 1000 times as compared to EU starting 1981 allowed US to secure its energy interests militarily in ME starting with first Iraq invasion.
3). The plundering of Iraqi oil is helping Bush sustain Iraq war, earn huge profits for energy giants on lines of 1972 historic precedence where Washington sold a barrel of oil for twenty dollars which was purchased for two dollars. Reportedly, between 300,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil are being shipped to US daily from Iraq. The production cost of barrel of oil in Iraq costs one to two dollar against twenty one to thirty one dollar per barrel in rest of the Gulf States (Iraqi oil draft remains deadlocked, Arab News dated Feb. 29 2008). The availability of almost free Iraqi oil has pushed American stocks up by 3.2 million barrels in Feb. 08 to 308.5 million barrels, which was 7 percent above the five-year average in the same period.
4). the same report shows that Iraq could actually be having 230 billion barrels of oil that could last for next four decades. It puts in perspective Gates statement, US to maintain long presence in Gulf (Arab News dated Dec. 23, 06) and McCain’s flip-flop over his statement of 100 years stay in Iraq. 5). It puts in perspective US clamor over Iran’s peaceful nuclear program because without Iran it would be difficult to justify presence of American military machines in the regional waters. It also explains delays in resolution of Palestine issue and unending (state managed) sectarian (or civil) war and (cash for peace) as distractions because without these diversions it would be difficult to cover stealing of Iraqi, which is nothing but violation of international norms and justice. 5). It also explains Bush sensitivity to de-pegging of oil prices from dollar. It will crumble the very edifice of US economy, its reliance on corruption money inducted in US economy invested in US securities and other local financial assets. US depends on corruption money to the tune of 2 billion dollars daily to finance its domestic consumption (If Euro becomes a serious contender to dollar; Arab News dated Aug. 3, 07). The good governance experts are of the view that US financial system and its political leadership cannot and does not support eradication of corruption for vested stakes. It can explain advanced world’s hesitation to support independence of judiciary in third world countries.
In terms of NATO’s Afghan occupation at stake European and US interests are: 1) controlling Asian energy corridors and allied pipeline network. For details of the pro-West and regional/Eastern corridors, see Oil Science and Pipelines politics steadily intensifies and Oil Science (Arab News Dec. 06 & June 07). The commissioning of Iran-Pak-India pipeline will allow Pakistan earn 700 million dollars annually. With almost 10 pipelines, waiting to link Gulf energy sector with CARS, Russia and China that are likely to pass through the region including Pakistan and Afghan it is easy to understand irrelevance of promised US aid. It explains Afghan occupation, hoax of war against terrorism and importance of Musharraf soliciting continuation of his pro-war foreign policy and imposing of failed economic policies on Pakistan despite World Bank warning of economic crisis to keep it aid dependent.
Reportedly, five agri-based US states are flourishing and contributing 25% of total US GDP (750 billion dollars in a three trillion budget for 2008) as 31 States head for recession and remaining 15 survive with help of local resources including oil, alternate energy and technology based economies. It is hoped Pakistan’s economic planner use this example to help country’s agri-sector expand including its mechanization to generate and sustain jobs for country’s 70 percent population which is dependent on this sector. It will free the country from foreign aid.
2). Afghan occupation is aimed to deny Russia’s state owned energy giant Gazprom link Europe with ME and China to sustain energy demand and in turn deny strengthening of Russian economy. Afghan occupation is a four-pronged strategic move aimed to choke golden trade route ultimately linking East with the West (referred to as resurgence of cold war by western observers: – a) deny Russia and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) energy block with fifth of global energy reserves link with ME under latter’s Look East Policy (Energy Club: A new body to reckon with? Arab News, August/Sept. 07). b) deny Europe cheap energy security, which is America’s only industrial challenger. c) deny energy revenue to Pakistan and in turn use aid to micromanage its policies to secure American geo-strategic interests in the region including China and Russia. 3). Discourage nationalization or re-nationalization of energy sector in third world countries on line of Russia, China, Gulf States and Latin American states including Venezuela to deny cheap energy to local economy. d) the math’s shows by removing Bush’s flawed policies in the region including occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq the price of a barrel of oil can return to 45 dollars (100 – 30% IMF dollar devaluation figures; -5 % Iraq war; -10 % due to US additional oil purchase to fund Iraq war and -10 % for ending of Afghan occupation= 45).
Finally, troop withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan will help Pakistan (and Afghanistan) earn billions of dollars through transit trade and strengthen economies with the availability of energy due to energy routes. The energy linkup with Gulf and Russia and adoption of currency basket will help reduce oil prices. Something successfully achieved by Iran and Vietnam.
Courtesy: Pakistan Observer, 29/3/2008
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