Countdown – By Wajahat Latif

The last year ended in tragedy for the people of Pakistan when Ms Benazir Bhutto was assassinated after addressing a massive public rally in Rawalpindi on December 27. But soon afterwards, the general election (against Musharraf’s wishes) scheduled under much national and international pressure for January 8 was postponed by the regime to the February 18 although all the major parties, especially Benazir’s own party, the PPP, opposed the postponement. The credibility of the regime being low, many people looked at the prospects sceptically. The trauma of the assassination of a national leader cast a pal of gloom right across the country and most people polled on the subject blamed the regime for it. There was doubt and apprehension about the election: rumours of rigging were pervasive.
In the event though, the election was held on February 18, 2008, making the day historic. It was a historic day not only because it was going to mark a step towards retrieving some democratic space lost to years of military rule.
It became more historic in its result. The result of the election showed that in spite of the rigging and security issues, people had come out to vote in large numbers (45%) and devastated both the Q League (the so called King’s party) as well as the MMA, an alliance of religious parties.
Falsifying the world fears on extremism, the vote was clearly in favour of the moderate, progressive parties. The regime was shocked but the nation was happy. Analysts believe that the opposition had a landslide victory because the vote against Musharraf and his regime was huge, simply impossible for the establishment to turn or twist. The people had spoken and restored the moderate image of Pakistan in one day; something that Musharraf was unable to do in nine long years.
But the optimism inspired by the election result is fading in the cacophony of intra PPP squabbles. PPP is the majority party to which the choice of PM had been left after the PPP, the PML (N) and the ANP made an alliance to form the government, announced in Murree about ten days ago. Since then the JUI has joined them. Mr Amin Fahim, the senior vice president of the PPP, has come out in the open as a candidate for premiership hotly contested by three other people within the party, at least one of them, Mr Ahmad Mukhtar, voicing his desire publicly. It also appears that Mr Zardari too, against his declared resolve, is a PM candidate.
There is also a nuance of Sindhi-Punjabi, which is extremely unfortunate. Dr Fahmida Mirza, an MNA from Sindh has become the speaker of the NA, it is surmised that the PM is likely to be from the Punjab to balance the provincial profile of the parliament.
Prevailing uncertainty is hurting no one but the cause of the winning alliance. With Musharraf fighting a last ditch battle from the President’s House, Q League and MQM helping him, there is dire need for the winning parties to remain steadfast not only in their alliance but also within the ranks of their respective parties to fight intrigues. Internal conflict on the question of the PM, interim or permanent, is playing into the hands of a hostile establishment.
But things are going ahead nevertheless. The speaker of the National Assembly was elected on Wednesday with more than two-thirds majority. The MNAs took oath on Monday, preponderant majority declaring that they were taking oath under the 73 constitution as it stood on November 2, 2007 before Musharraf made the illegal changes to it, dismissing the higher judiciary and detaining the entire Supreme Court of Pakistan, replacing it with his own judges under a PCO. For PCO judges it would be pay up time.
But there is no way Musharraf’s judges can help him since they know they have been spawned by a violation of the constitution. They know that the man who put them up is a general who has since been denuded of his uniform. They also know that he has been overwhelmingly rejected by the people in an election in spite of elaborate pre-poll rigging. They are aware that there is an independent parliament to reckon with. They know that the new commander of the army has decided to go by the book and publicly forbidden his officers from hobnobbing with the politicians. They must have noticed that the service chiefs stayed away from the NA on Monday when the new MNAs were sworn in. Above all, they know that they do not have the support of the legal community, the civil society, the rank and file of the mainstream political parties and the people at large.
Everybody, the PCO judges know, is behind the prisoners in the Judges’ Colony in Islamabad: Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and his children. Being detained illegally, it is only a matter of days before they are freed and Musharraf’s November 3 PCO is undone. The count down has begun.

Courtesy: The Nation, 21/3/2008